Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Random thoughts on June 29, 2021

- The current rule-based order is based upon the power of the U.S. to enforce, which contradicts itself as such a foundation makes it a power-based order. Because the U.S. gets to choose what to enforce. A good example is UNCLOS. By not ratifying UNCLOS because the U.S. does not agree with a small portion of it, it shows that nations with power have the right to do what they want, i.e. a power-based order, rather than adhere to a set of rules that is agreed upon by the majority of countries.

- The current Westphalian international order that respects national sovereignty equally is incompatible with a rule-based order since the agreement to abide by a common set of rules, agreed upon by the majority of nations, necessarily means subjugating a nation's sovereignty to those rules.

- The U.S. is opposed to China using force to change the status quo regarding Taiwan. Here, the understanding of force is usually closely tied to military force. What happens if China pursues an economic policy that attempts to bring Taiwan into China's economic sphere, whether by positive persuasion or by forceful coercion? Will the U.S. allow Taiwan to choose to join with China?

- There are countries which criticise China's authoritarian regime. What happens if democratic movements in China result in widespread social unrest that results in a standstill in China's economy for six months? Will global supply chains pressure their governments to request China to take strong action to quell social unrest instead?

- In the 1970s, the U.S. cultivated its relationship with China to balance against the Soviet Union. Today, Vietnam is seen as a partner to help balance China. However, will this eventually led to another unbalance within Southeast Asia that will need to be dealt with again at a later date?

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