Typhoon Haishen is unpredictable

Typhoon Haishen, (TY 2010, because it is the 10th typhoon of 2020) has just passed Okinawa and seems to be headed for Kyushu before moving toward the Korean Peninsula. It is predicted to bring extremely severe winds and rains and waves to the affected regions.

When Haishen was about to form, I watched the news show an ocean surface temperature chart and thought, "This is going to be bad. The entire region to the south of Japan is showing much higher ocean surface temperature, making it an excellent breeding ground for typhoons." And before we knew it, Haishen has formed and is proving itself to be of a scale that has not been seen for decades.

What really worries me about Haishen is that, because it is of a scale unseen for decades, we actually do not have sufficient past data to accurately predict its path. So while the current forecast says it will pass through Kyushu before heading to the Korean Peninsula, it may also recurve more and head toward Honshu instead. Especially because the entire region is a typhoon breeding ground, Haishen can gather a lot of energy while recurving. If it does recurve significantly, it may make landfall in the Kii Peninsula instead. That would be bad news for the Osaka region, the entire Shikoku (which will be in the path before landfall), and even the Kanto region will be affected by severe winds (and rains and waves).

Furthermore, the slow speed of the typhoon means that is lingers over a region longer, allowing it to do even more damage than a fast-moving one. And also more time to gather energy if it lingers over the ocean longer. And more likely to recurve.

So I am going to keep a close watch over the news, in case it starts to recurve. Because when it does... I will need to start making preparations to weather it.

Update: As of 062000i Sep 2020, Typhoon Haishen is near the southern end of Kyushu, heading northerly and likely to pass to the east of Kyushu proper. It is thus unlikely to recurve toward Honshu.