Tuesday, May 19, 2020

To win, first know the "shape" of the opponent's strategy

Our minds are not good at grasping the unknown. It is our nature that, when trying to deal with an issue, we must first have a concept of that issue. In other words, we must give that issue a "shape". This applies not just to our daily lives but also to broader aspects like economics and geopolitics. Here, I shall talk more about geopolitics.

In geopolitics, we must know what others are trying to do. We need to give "shape" to their strategies. Is it a strategy of coercion by military force? Is it a strategy of "buying" allies? Once we know that strategy, we can then work to undermine it, to work on countering it.

For example, if the opponent's strategy is to weaken our alliances (as mentioned in The Art of War), then we need to look at our alliances and address issues that may be exploited. If the strategy is to stretch us, we need to know how to prioritize our resource allocation. If it is a strategy of distraction, we need to learn to discern substantial actions from inconsequential ones.

The key is to work against the opponent's strategy and not be tied down by dealing with his actions.

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