Monday, March 30, 2020

Will COVID-19 change the balance of power?

Yet another article about the impact on China from COVID-19.

PacNet #16 – Covid-19: As China Recovers, Will Its Economy Follow?

I don't think there is any doubt that China has suffered and is suffering due to COVID-19. The bigger question in my mind is the impact on the U.S. due to Trump's leadership (or lack thereof) and the effect on the global balance of power arising from that impact. China has a population more than three times that of the U.S., yet the U.S. has, by a miracle of mismanagement, managed to surpass China in terms of number of infected persons.

The article gives hard evidence in terms of figures about exports and manufacturing. But these are short-term figures, and you really don't need experts to tell you that COVID-19 has an impact on economies around the world. Highlighting China's figures serves to bring attention to China, yes, but without comparisons with figures from other countries like the U.S., the significance of those figures cannot be fully grasped.

Another worrying sign is that Trump keeps calling this a war. And we have all seen what Republican presidents have done in the past. The war on terror resulted in invasions into other sovereign states. Trump's rhetoric of calling the novel coronavirus the "Chinese virus" may have more sinister intentions beyond trying to blame China. The fear that the U.S. will use COVID-19 as an excuse for trying to maintain its current hegemony through force, whether economic or kinetic, is worrying.

At the end of the day, I think it again boils down to facts over feelings. We all have our own opinions about authoritarian regimes, human rights, and ideals about freedom. But we need to remember that these are our own opinions; they are about how we feel about things. But we need to based our decisions on facts, not our feelings. We are all entitled to our own opinions, our own feelings, but there is only one set of facts. Basing decisions on facts is what separates good decisions from poor ones.

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