Thursday, June 20, 2019

Sequel to the Tonkin Gulf Incident?

US Navy: Mine in tanker attack bears Iran hallmarks

Two ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Such attacks bring back memories of the 1980s, when Iran was attacking shipping in that very same location during its war with Iraq. And now, the US is saying that these recent attacks were conducted by Iran.

The US Navy, which said that North Vietnam attacked them in the Gulf of Tonkin in 1965, sparking the Vietnam War, is saying that Iran attacked innocent shipping in 2019. And just like 1965, the evidence is sketchy. The evidence is circumstantial; there is no "smoking gun," or "caught in the act" stuff here.

This is all the more worrying because witness accounts from the Japanese ship attacked stated the ship was hit by flying objects. Implying an attack either by projectile shells from a naval gun, or a missile. Both scenarios are not anywhere near to the limpet mine scenario being painted by the US Navy.

Even if we assume that the US Navy is being honest and that the attacks were caused by limpet mines. It was reported that they had a hard time trying to pry the magnets off the ship. If the magnets are so strong, it is going to be really hard for a boat to close the ship at sea, travel alongside it while braving the waves to place those mines. That implies the mines were planted in harbor. And if the mines were planted in harbor, it can be anyone who has access to that harbor. Not just the geographical neighbor of Iran where the explosion actually took place.

Whatever it is you choose to believe, a few pieces of magnets is not a smoking gun. Before going off on another Vietnam as "retaliation" or another Iraq to find "WMDs" based on how we feel about who the perpetrators may be, we should be asking ourselves, "What are the facts?"

Let's judge and act based on facts, not feelings.

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