Tuesday, September 25, 2018

And so, the musical chair begins

Trade wars: Is Trump lining up Japan next?

A day after I posted this, this article came out in the news.

Like I said, it is a musical chair, because fundamentally, the U.S. relies on imports of goods so that it can export its services. Unless the U.S. fundamentally restructures its economy away from emphasizing services and toward primary and secondary production, it will just need to import. Tariffs will not stop imports unless there are domestic alternatives. If there are no such alternatives, tariffs only serve to increase the costs of businesses, which then gets passed down and eventually increasing the cost of living for consumers.

The question, then, is whether the rest of the world can survive with an economically isolated U.S.? Are there alternatives to things coming from the U.S.? Because if there are, great! We can all just continue to trade with each other, minus the U.S., and carry on with life. There probably will be some restructuring to do, but it won't be a drastic change. And if China is able to do this slight restructuring faster than most, which it may given that the central government has a lot of say in things there, then this may just help to propel China to become the top dog instead. And kill off U.S. hegemony since closed systems don't grow.

If China survives this trade war, it will only come out all the more stronger. If the U.S. survives this trade war, it will just be prolonging its decline if it continues to take an isolationist approach.

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