Monday, April 09, 2012

Imperial overstretch?

China seems to be taking actions that make the US more deeply rooted in Asia.We have seen how the US has already committed to deploying 1 to 2 Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) to the region. This is in spite of growing pressure at home to cut defence spending. US fiscal situation is also dependent on foreign borrowing, with a large percentage of US bonds being bought by China and Japan.

Now, China is not stupid; she did not survive thousands of years being stupid. Maybe her recent actions are aimed at pushing the US towards imperial overstretch? By forcing the US to spend more on defence when the US can barely afford to. And if the US pushes Japan to take up a bigger share of the balancing, China can accuse Japan of growing remilitarism. And Japan can barely afford to increase defence spending, given her stagnant economy and the need to commit rebuilding efforts after the tsunami and earthquake.

By pushing the US and Japan to overspend, China is pushing them towards imperial overstretch, while making them more dependent on the Chinese economy to fund their economies. After all, China is Japan's largest trading partner too. In the end, China may win the hegemonic war without a fight; after all, Sun-tzu advocates that the greatest way to win a war is without fighting, and China just might have found the strategy to do so.

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