With the summit between Trump and Kim coming up next week, the question I have in mind is: what can come out of it?
Well, one of the best outcomes would be a promise from Kim that North Korea will completely denuclearize, which would then have to be followed by the U.S. removing troops from South Korea and the lifting of sanctions once denuclearization has been verified. This will greatly stabilize the region, and will be a major political victory for Trump too.
But my military background has taught me to be prepared for the worst case scenario. So, what are some of the bad outcomes?
1. Kim gets to meet Trump, but no deal is struck at the summit as both sides cannot agree on anything, and talks end. This will be a major political victory for Kim, as he would be the only North Korean leader to have achieved this. It will give him significant power to consolidate his own country behind him. But for Trump, it is the exact opposite. He loses face, as he has been saying he is a great deal-maker, but he fails to close a deal this time. Mainstream media has a field day attacking Trump for his failure to close a deal, probably along the line of "he is not the deal-maker he says he is."
2. Taking this further, Trump gets mad at having lost face and being attacked by what he calls "fake news." He uses the "no deal" and plays it as a sign that North Korea refuses to deal via diplomatic means, and embarks on military action against North Korea. The Republican Congress, afraid of losing supporters in the mid-terms, grudgingly plays along with Trump. However, South Korea does not support the U.S. in this war, as they see it being waged for the pride of Trump rather than for the good of the Korean people. And while Abe may want to help Trump in this war, the Japanese people are likely to be totally against military action without any basis. The U.S. ends up in a unilateral military action without support from its allies, plus having to face criticism from the rest of the world.
3. This becomes a perfect chance for China to step in and act as peace maker. With North Korea playing victim, the U.S. being seen as the aggressor, any positive outcome that China delivers will only help to heighten China's global prestige, and further expose the U.S.'s double standards in its dealings. Once China comes into the picture, the U.S. Congress will have no choice but to impeach Trump so as to deescalate the situation, as they know that any war with China (backed by the rest of the world) will hurt all parties, and will be exceptionally bad for the U.S. This further divides the U.S., which becomes fragmented politically, socially, and economically.
4. While the U.S. is recovering from the fragmentation, China takes a more active role on the global stage, further consolidating its power. It will be a long time before anyone else can rise to challenge China's global influence.
So while there may be a good outcome to this summit, it can also be the start of a road down a dark and dangerous path. I just hope that whatever happens at the summit, cooler heads will prevail.
Well, one of the best outcomes would be a promise from Kim that North Korea will completely denuclearize, which would then have to be followed by the U.S. removing troops from South Korea and the lifting of sanctions once denuclearization has been verified. This will greatly stabilize the region, and will be a major political victory for Trump too.
But my military background has taught me to be prepared for the worst case scenario. So, what are some of the bad outcomes?
1. Kim gets to meet Trump, but no deal is struck at the summit as both sides cannot agree on anything, and talks end. This will be a major political victory for Kim, as he would be the only North Korean leader to have achieved this. It will give him significant power to consolidate his own country behind him. But for Trump, it is the exact opposite. He loses face, as he has been saying he is a great deal-maker, but he fails to close a deal this time. Mainstream media has a field day attacking Trump for his failure to close a deal, probably along the line of "he is not the deal-maker he says he is."
2. Taking this further, Trump gets mad at having lost face and being attacked by what he calls "fake news." He uses the "no deal" and plays it as a sign that North Korea refuses to deal via diplomatic means, and embarks on military action against North Korea. The Republican Congress, afraid of losing supporters in the mid-terms, grudgingly plays along with Trump. However, South Korea does not support the U.S. in this war, as they see it being waged for the pride of Trump rather than for the good of the Korean people. And while Abe may want to help Trump in this war, the Japanese people are likely to be totally against military action without any basis. The U.S. ends up in a unilateral military action without support from its allies, plus having to face criticism from the rest of the world.
3. This becomes a perfect chance for China to step in and act as peace maker. With North Korea playing victim, the U.S. being seen as the aggressor, any positive outcome that China delivers will only help to heighten China's global prestige, and further expose the U.S.'s double standards in its dealings. Once China comes into the picture, the U.S. Congress will have no choice but to impeach Trump so as to deescalate the situation, as they know that any war with China (backed by the rest of the world) will hurt all parties, and will be exceptionally bad for the U.S. This further divides the U.S., which becomes fragmented politically, socially, and economically.
4. While the U.S. is recovering from the fragmentation, China takes a more active role on the global stage, further consolidating its power. It will be a long time before anyone else can rise to challenge China's global influence.
So while there may be a good outcome to this summit, it can also be the start of a road down a dark and dangerous path. I just hope that whatever happens at the summit, cooler heads will prevail.
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