Looking at China's response to Trump's tariffs

When I look at China's response to the tariffs being imposed by the Trump administration, I cannot help but try and analyze it from the angle of strategy. After all, China is the country which gave birth to Sun-tzu, whose Art of War is still being studied today. In this case, what stands out is that Sun-tzu advocates: attack the enemy's strategy; if not, attack his alliances; avoid direct conflict (attacking his armies); and the worst thing one can do is a protracted conflict of attrition (attacking his cities).

In the context of this trade war, what does it mean? At first, China's retaliation with tariffs of its own seems to be a strategy of direct conflict. But I think that is only an appearance. This "direct conflict" is more likely a tactical move; the strategy is to set an example to the rest of the world that they can also stand up to the U.S. in this trade issue. In other words, it is an attempt at attacking U.S. alliances. It sets a precedence for Canada and the E.U. to retaliate with their own tariffs. And this works because Trump did not limit his rhetorics to China; he chose to cast his net wider, which only isolates him from America's friends. If Trump had limited his tariffs to China, China would be isolated. But now, instead, China can actually recoup the losses in trade with the U.S. through increasing trade with other countries which are similarly suffering from losses in trade with the U.S.

Looking deeper, I think it is also an attack on Trump's plan, which is to use tariffs to show that he is "doing something to help Americans." Trump's plan only works if the tariffs are one-way, impacting imports into the U.S and forcing American consumers to increase consumption of domestic production. But when it is two way, impacting American exports, it becomes a losing situation for both American consumers and producers. This is an attack on Trump's plan, that tariffs will improve American lives.

So China's retaliation, while looking like a lose-lose draw out trade war, may actually be a strategy of attacking America's alliances and Trump's strategy. We won't know for sure, but it certainly looks so to me. We just have to see how it plays out.