On the use of decoys

The issue of decoys came up in an online seminar that I attended, and it made me remember my days as a naval officer and how I felt about decoys back then.

Given that achieving surprise is a key factor in war, the use of decoys to draw away the enemy's attention seems to be an effective method. But what looks good on paper may not work well in execution. Decoys are really hard to use.

For a start, decoys need to be realistic. A decoy needs to look enough like a real objective in order to draw the enemy's attention. For example, a decoy force to fake an attack in Direction A needs to comprise of enough assets to make it look like we are actually going to attack something along that direction. Otherwise, the enemy will not take that bait; the enemy is not stupid. That is something that planners tend to forget. They think the enemy will act like how we think they will act. Unfortunately, the enemy is an intelligent being too, with its own set of experiences and knowledge to guide actions.

And the leads to another issue when using decoys. Assets need to be devoted to this decoy in order to make it realistic. But those assets can be employed elsewhere; it is an opportunity cost to employ them for decoys. There is thus a need to weigh whether the decoy is worth deploying. And this must be looked at from both success and failure. What is the gain we get from the enemy taking the bait? What do we lose if the bait is not taken? What can we otherwise do with the decoy assets?

Personally, I do not like to deliberately use decoys. All assets should be deployed toward achieving the objective. The trick is to make your main force, the real one, look like a decoy. If the enemy thinks the main force is a decoy and ignores it to look for the "real" force, then you will be able to achieve your objective with a lot less resistance. This is the art of winning without fighting. This is true deception in war. Deception in war is not about making your decoys look realistic; it is about not drawing attention to your main effort. Just like an excellent shiphandler is one that does not need to employ excellent shiphandling, the excellent warfighter is the one which does not need to carry out intense warfighting. The master is the one who can achieve the objective with the less resistance.

So yes, while decoys look good on paper, we need to remember that decoys require resources and assets to deploy, and whether they work or not depends on the perception of the enemy. Like what The Art of War says, the key is to make the real look false and the false look real. That is true deception in war.