Is the United States really capable of convincing the rest of the world to cut carbon dioxide emissions?

Biden announces US will aim to cut carbon emissions by as much as 52% by 2030 at virtual climate summit

The Biden administration's target of cutting U.S. carbon dioxide emissions to 50-52% that of its 2005 level by 2030 sounds ambitious. But will it really convince other countries to reduce their emissions?

Carbon dioxide is a by-product of human activity, and the United States likes to draw attention to total emissions as a country. This is because the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by each country is the sum of the carbon footprint of every person in its population. In general, countries with large populations end up emitting more carbon dioxide than those with smaller populations, if they are engaged in the same level of human activity.

Carbon dioxide emissions by country (Source: World Bank)

 

Using total emissions at the country level thus allows the United States to call on countries like China to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions. China as a country emits about twice as much carbon dioxide as the United States. If the United States halves its emissions, it will be emitting a quarter of which China is emitting.

The caveat, though, is that China has more than four times the population of the United States.

Population by country (Source: World Bank)

 

So when you look at the carbon footprint (per capita carbon dioxide emissions) of each person in the United States versus a person in China, you see that the carbon footprint of a person in China is actually less than half that of someone in the United States. If the United States reduces its emissions by 50%, it won't even be on par, at the per capita level, with China.

Per capita carbon dioxide emissions by country (Source: World Bank)

 

So while it sounds like the United States is setting an example in environmental consciousness, it still falls short of where China is right now. For the United States to really be convincing in taking the lead on climate change, it will need to do better. It will need to reduce its per capita carbon dioxide emissions to below those of other major developing and developed countries. Otherwise, it is just conveniently choosing the statistics that suits its purpose while ignoring those that don't.