My thoughts on the Iraqi War

Well, the Iraqi War is coming to its 4th anniversary, and there is still no sight of American troops pulling out anytime soon.

My feel on this? When this whole thing is over, Vietnam War would seem like a success to the Americans. After all, they managed to extract themselves from the mess in Vietnam after 10 years. I wonder how long they will be stuck in Iraq.

The Gulf War in 1991 was a success for the Coalition partly because of the limited objectives (just drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait) and also because Saddam probably knew the risk he was taking in his gamble (of taking Kuwait), and he was ready to lose too. He knew what he can afford to lose, and that was his stake in the gamble. He lost his stake, but it wasn't anything that he couldn't afford to lose. In the end, it was a win-win situation for everyone. The Coalition achieved its aim of driving out the Iraqis from Kuwait, and Saddam was able to build up political bullets by showing his courage in standing up to American superpower.

The difference with the Gulf War and the Iraqi War is that the Iraqi War's objective is a regime change. Now, that is something way really hard. The Cambodians were in a much better position in 1992 when they asked the UN for help in setting up a regime, after years of civil war. The Coalition of the willing has no such mandate from the UN, and I don't think the Iraqis agreed to invite them to help. So trying to force change upon a people whom you may not really understand very well (different culture, different religion, different traditions) may not be an easy task, and I think the Americans are finding out the hard way now.