After Abe announced that he will be stepping down as PM of Japan, his Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga Yoshihide, garnered the most support among LDP Diet members as the person to take over from Abe.
In a political landscape that is heavily influenced by factions within the LDP, Suga does not belong to any faction. He has previously expressed that he is not an advocate for the idea of factions within a party. Yet he looks set to be Japan's next PM due to support from various factions within the LDP. Why?
I think his appeal is his non-factional identity. No faction within the LDP wants to lose to another faction. In normal times, when party leadership is determined by votes from the party's Diet members as well as party representatives nationwide, factions, no matter their size, can get votes from those party representatives outside the Diet. This allows them to contest for the top spot using votes from non-factional party representatives.
But this time, due to COVID-19, it is not feasible to carry out a nationwide party vote. Votes will be limited to LDP Diet members and certain representatives. The excerpt below explains this best.
Under party rules, presidential elections are decided by 788 votes split evenly between LDP Diet representatives and party members across the country.
However, things are different in the event of an emergency, such as a resignation. In these cases, Diet members and representatives from prefectural party chapters are able to vote at a general meeting of lawmakers from both houses. A total of 535 votes are contested, including 394 from Diet members and 141 from representatives of prefectural chapters. A party member vote is not required.
This means that Diet member votes will account for more than 70% of the vote, amplifying the importance of party factions.
However, things are different in the event of an emergency, such as a resignation. In these cases, Diet members and representatives from prefectural party chapters are able to vote at a general meeting of lawmakers from both houses. A total of 535 votes are contested, including 394 from Diet members and 141 from representatives of prefectural chapters. A party member vote is not required.
This means that Diet member votes will account for more than 70% of the vote, amplifying the importance of party factions.
I think it is precisely because of the importance of party factions this time that Suga is seeing such widespread support. Why? He does not belong to any faction, which means it is easier for factions to support him over a rival faction. In a way, the enemy of my enemy (Ishiba Shigeru is not the most liked person within LDP Diet members, for various reasons...) is my friend. Without 253 non-factional votes this time, it is harder for any faction to gather enough votes to emerge at the top. It is also why Ishiba keeps stressing that there should be a nationwide vote. He knows that his faction is not a large one, and needs those outside votes if he is to win. Pushing his current narrative helps him in two ways: if he gets his way, he can try to garner enough votes for a win; if he does not, he can always undermine the legitimacy of Suga subsequently by saying that Suga got the post in an unconventional (rigged?) way.
It looks like Suga is on his way to the top spot. What remains to be seen is whether he can keep his post next year, since this time, the term is a special one for a year.
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