Recently, Japan has been taking a strong stance with regards to her territorial issues with China over the Senkaku Islands (known as Diaoyu Islands also) and South Korea over Dokdo (known as Takeshima too).
Personally, I think this is a very bad time to force the issue for Japan.
China is undergoing leadership change during this time. No leader likes to be seen as weak, and thus China is unlikely to come to any compromise over this issue at this time. In fact, bringing up the issue now only forces China to take a strong stance with regards to the territorial issue.
There is also a Chinese saying, that while brothers may fight amongst themselves while at home, they will unite against an external threat. The recent stance taken by Taiwan over the Diaoyu Islands, supporting China's claim, is a clear sign of this. For Japan, bringing up the issue now may just push Taiwan more towards China, something that may not be strategically beneficial for Japan. It only means Japan becomes more isolated in East Asia. It also means one less strategic foothold for the US in the region, something which the US is not likely to want or tolerate.
It is also election year in the US, and while bringing up the issue now forces the US to make clear stance on their commitment towards Japan, given the complex economic relation between the US and China, the US is not likely to want to antagonise China during this critical period. To the US, Japan is that insensitive, childish friend trying to make them take sides in a quarrel with deeply buried implications.
Taking a strong stance on territorial issues with China is also a reminder to South Korea that the issue for Dokdo is still up on the table. South Korea has never forgotten Japan's aggression in the 20th century, and any strong stance by the Japanese is like a reminder to them of Japan's militant past, something that South Korea is always apprehensive about and still fresh in their memories. While both countries are allies of the US and would only be strategically beneficial to be friendly to each other, such issues will drive them apart and further isolate Japan in the region.
Economically speaking, Sino-Japanese trade is important for both sides, yet if China decides to boycott Japanese goods, China still has the production capability to supply her own domestic demand. Chinese factories have been facing production slowdown; this is a good opportunity for them to increase output and put under-utilised factories back on track. Japan, however, will suffer an economic blow, driving her already stagnant economy even further back.
So while it seems like a good time for Japan to bring up the issue and force the US to commit to Japan, when you consider all other factors in, it may just be a bad move by Japan, one that she cannot easily back away from now, and with possible long-term negative strategic implications for her.
Personally, I think this is a very bad time to force the issue for Japan.
China is undergoing leadership change during this time. No leader likes to be seen as weak, and thus China is unlikely to come to any compromise over this issue at this time. In fact, bringing up the issue now only forces China to take a strong stance with regards to the territorial issue.
There is also a Chinese saying, that while brothers may fight amongst themselves while at home, they will unite against an external threat. The recent stance taken by Taiwan over the Diaoyu Islands, supporting China's claim, is a clear sign of this. For Japan, bringing up the issue now may just push Taiwan more towards China, something that may not be strategically beneficial for Japan. It only means Japan becomes more isolated in East Asia. It also means one less strategic foothold for the US in the region, something which the US is not likely to want or tolerate.
It is also election year in the US, and while bringing up the issue now forces the US to make clear stance on their commitment towards Japan, given the complex economic relation between the US and China, the US is not likely to want to antagonise China during this critical period. To the US, Japan is that insensitive, childish friend trying to make them take sides in a quarrel with deeply buried implications.
Taking a strong stance on territorial issues with China is also a reminder to South Korea that the issue for Dokdo is still up on the table. South Korea has never forgotten Japan's aggression in the 20th century, and any strong stance by the Japanese is like a reminder to them of Japan's militant past, something that South Korea is always apprehensive about and still fresh in their memories. While both countries are allies of the US and would only be strategically beneficial to be friendly to each other, such issues will drive them apart and further isolate Japan in the region.
Economically speaking, Sino-Japanese trade is important for both sides, yet if China decides to boycott Japanese goods, China still has the production capability to supply her own domestic demand. Chinese factories have been facing production slowdown; this is a good opportunity for them to increase output and put under-utilised factories back on track. Japan, however, will suffer an economic blow, driving her already stagnant economy even further back.
So while it seems like a good time for Japan to bring up the issue and force the US to commit to Japan, when you consider all other factors in, it may just be a bad move by Japan, one that she cannot easily back away from now, and with possible long-term negative strategic implications for her.
1 comment:
Very enlightening!
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