China and the South China Sea ruse

About 10 years ago, China reasserted claims in the South China Sea through its nine-dash line claim. That was in 2009, when the rest of the world was still trying to recover from the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

This claim is not new. It originated from the days when the Republic of China (currently on the island of Taiwan) was in control of the Chinese mainland. But why did the People's Republic of China choose to dig it up after more than 60 years?

Could it just be a ruse?

At a time when the U.S. was trying to consolidate resources to deal with its own domestic financial issues, could China have been using this claim to tie down the U.S. in this region? It is costly to operate a navy far from home. Any scale-back in operations would greatly cut operating costs, money which can be used in other parts of the U.S. to help with economic recovery. But so blatant a claim, so blatantly in contravention of international law (UNCLOS), cannot be ignored by the U.S., because to ignore it would be to undermine the international system that has been put in place under U.S. leadership after World War Two.

It was a move that the U.S. could not ignore, and China knew it.

At the same time, I think China might not be looking into a long-term solution for this issue. Just like the issue of Taiwan and the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, sometimes, it is better to have ambiguity and unresolved issues that can be used to one's advantage when the time comes. The longer this drags on, the longer people have to devote resources to deal with it. All China needs to do is to be the one setting the pace, i.e. create the issues. This sends others into a scramble to deal with the issues, always putting them one step behind.

If that is the case, then the best way to deal with it is to be the one setting the pace. To be the one creating the issues for China to deal with.

One way would be the set the stage for a revision to UNCLOS. The U.S. can come in, and say that the U.S. is ready to engage China and India in revising UNCLOS to take into consideration the current global situation; an update to UNCLOS. This, of course, would be a U.S.-led affair, with U.S. in the driver's seat. But it is a move that China would not have expected from the U.S. It will throw China off guard, making China have to be the one to respond to the issue instead. It puts the initiative on the U.S. side. And the U.S. has a good excuse for this. The U.S. has not ratified UNCLOS, and can always say it is ready to work to better UNCLOS so that it can be something universal, accepted by everyone because it takes into consideration the current global situation and the new interests of emerging powers.

I don't know if the U.S. is willing to give this a try, but of course, it is but an example. The trick is to seize the initiative, be the one creating the issues for China to deal with instead of being the one always reacting to issues created by China. Some other alternatives would be to create a forum for discussing the joint development of the South China Sea.

Note: This post is just for me to consolidate some of my thoughts on this issue, and I apologise if it does not sound fully coherent.