We all know about the protests in Hong Kong. I previously mentioned it is an opportunity lost. Let me elaborate more.
When the protests first started, it was a peaceful march. And that was what caught global attention, and that was what caught Beijing's attention. If the protests had remained peaceful, Beijing would have budged. Because a peaceful protest sends a very powerful message: that people are willing to come out to support a cause, and they are not afraid to show their support for that cause.
But then, certain radical elements hijacked the protests, adding a violent element to it. And that was when Beijing won. Because now, Beijing can label the protests as riots, the protesters are rioters, vandals, and criminals. And because violent protests are bad for business, Beijing knows that eventually, economics will help it bring an end to the protests. Violence and instability are bad for business. The reason why "rule of law" is so important is because it guarantees a certain level of stability, a certain level of certainty that allows businesses to base decisions on. When things become unstable and uncertain, businesses will start to pull out. Because the Hong Kong violent protests have shown businesses the possibility for instability. In the short-term, businesses may pressure employees to help persuade their friends and relatives to end the violence. But in the medium-to-long-term, they will start hunting for more stable ground, because who knows when the violence will return?
And as a city so linked to international business, when businesses start to leave Hong Kong due to the instability, only the Hong Kong people will suffer. Expats may leave, but they have homes to return to. Companies can shift their operations to Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, etc. as Hong Kong is no longer the only nor best gateway into China. It is those people who are stuck in Hong Kong--the very protesters--that has the most to lose.
Yet, in their short-sightedness, they allowed the few radicals to hijack their cause, and turn it into a victory for China. When businesses leave Hong Kong for greener, more stable pastures, the Hong Kong people will be left with broken infrastructure and fewer job opportunities, and a long-term decline into insignificance.
And Beijing will be able to use Hong Kong as a message to everyone else: the Pearl of the Orient can become a pebble if it goes against the will of Beijing. All Beijing has to do is wait for the violence to continue, and let economics handle the rest.
And when the pearl becomes a pebble, Beijing will just kick it out of sight into the sea.
So is there a way out?
Yes. End the violence. Stop the burning and the trashing. Turn up in peace, show the world and Beijing that the Hong Kong people are capable of controlling themselves. This sends a much stronger message than Molotov cocktails and laser beams. It undermines Beijing's efforts to label the protests and protesters. It brings the moral high ground back to the protesters and their protests. And moral high ground is very important in the Chinese context. Beijing's efforts to delegitimize the protests and the protesters is about giving Beijing the moral high ground. Do not cede that to Beijing.
Show up in peace. Prevent violence. Two million people showing up on the streets for a cause is more fearful than 200,000 burning the streets of Hong Kong.
When the protests first started, it was a peaceful march. And that was what caught global attention, and that was what caught Beijing's attention. If the protests had remained peaceful, Beijing would have budged. Because a peaceful protest sends a very powerful message: that people are willing to come out to support a cause, and they are not afraid to show their support for that cause.
But then, certain radical elements hijacked the protests, adding a violent element to it. And that was when Beijing won. Because now, Beijing can label the protests as riots, the protesters are rioters, vandals, and criminals. And because violent protests are bad for business, Beijing knows that eventually, economics will help it bring an end to the protests. Violence and instability are bad for business. The reason why "rule of law" is so important is because it guarantees a certain level of stability, a certain level of certainty that allows businesses to base decisions on. When things become unstable and uncertain, businesses will start to pull out. Because the Hong Kong violent protests have shown businesses the possibility for instability. In the short-term, businesses may pressure employees to help persuade their friends and relatives to end the violence. But in the medium-to-long-term, they will start hunting for more stable ground, because who knows when the violence will return?
And as a city so linked to international business, when businesses start to leave Hong Kong due to the instability, only the Hong Kong people will suffer. Expats may leave, but they have homes to return to. Companies can shift their operations to Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, etc. as Hong Kong is no longer the only nor best gateway into China. It is those people who are stuck in Hong Kong--the very protesters--that has the most to lose.
Yet, in their short-sightedness, they allowed the few radicals to hijack their cause, and turn it into a victory for China. When businesses leave Hong Kong for greener, more stable pastures, the Hong Kong people will be left with broken infrastructure and fewer job opportunities, and a long-term decline into insignificance.
And Beijing will be able to use Hong Kong as a message to everyone else: the Pearl of the Orient can become a pebble if it goes against the will of Beijing. All Beijing has to do is wait for the violence to continue, and let economics handle the rest.
And when the pearl becomes a pebble, Beijing will just kick it out of sight into the sea.
So is there a way out?
Yes. End the violence. Stop the burning and the trashing. Turn up in peace, show the world and Beijing that the Hong Kong people are capable of controlling themselves. This sends a much stronger message than Molotov cocktails and laser beams. It undermines Beijing's efforts to label the protests and protesters. It brings the moral high ground back to the protesters and their protests. And moral high ground is very important in the Chinese context. Beijing's efforts to delegitimize the protests and the protesters is about giving Beijing the moral high ground. Do not cede that to Beijing.
Show up in peace. Prevent violence. Two million people showing up on the streets for a cause is more fearful than 200,000 burning the streets of Hong Kong.
2 comments:
Commentary: Have the Hong Kong protesters lost the narrative?
It seems the protesters are losing the narrative. Or more like, losing the media's attention.
Hong Kong enters recession as street protests erupt in flames
And so it begins. First sign of decline.
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