China expected to retaliate over Trump tariff hike, economic adviser says
The Art of War teaches one to win without fighting. And I think that was the Chinese strategy. To avoid direct conflict with the US for as long as possible while China grows in strength, until such time when any conflict will inevitably be a Chinese victory, and thereby deterring the US from conflict because it would be a hopeless fight.
Trump probably threw a big spanner at that Chinese strategy with the trade war.
The question, though, is whether the US is sufficiently better than the Chinese in its economy to be able to convince the Chinese that the conflict is hopeless, right now, for the Chinese. That China would be better off bowing down to the US for the time being, and continue to suffer US dominance.
If not, China will have to fight. And in any fight, both side loses. Until the day one of them emerge the winner, both sides will be losing. Even when one side emerges the victor, it will be some time before the victor can recoup the losses from the fight.
Will China fight? Most probably.
Who will win? I would say both sides stand about an equal chance of winning, given their current economic situations.
Is there an alternative? Probably. The US could have taken other, less prominent measures to undermine Chinese progress. But I guess Trump needed the theatrics to help him in domestic politics. It is a gamble, because in any fight, luck plays a part too, and he can lose. And if he loses, he will always be remembered as the US President that lost the trade war to China.
The Art of War teaches one to win without fighting. And I think that was the Chinese strategy. To avoid direct conflict with the US for as long as possible while China grows in strength, until such time when any conflict will inevitably be a Chinese victory, and thereby deterring the US from conflict because it would be a hopeless fight.
Trump probably threw a big spanner at that Chinese strategy with the trade war.
The question, though, is whether the US is sufficiently better than the Chinese in its economy to be able to convince the Chinese that the conflict is hopeless, right now, for the Chinese. That China would be better off bowing down to the US for the time being, and continue to suffer US dominance.
If not, China will have to fight. And in any fight, both side loses. Until the day one of them emerge the winner, both sides will be losing. Even when one side emerges the victor, it will be some time before the victor can recoup the losses from the fight.
Will China fight? Most probably.
Who will win? I would say both sides stand about an equal chance of winning, given their current economic situations.
Is there an alternative? Probably. The US could have taken other, less prominent measures to undermine Chinese progress. But I guess Trump needed the theatrics to help him in domestic politics. It is a gamble, because in any fight, luck plays a part too, and he can lose. And if he loses, he will always be remembered as the US President that lost the trade war to China.
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